M3 - Market Memo Monday: 20 November 2023 - 26 November 2023

A Recap of Last Week's Financial Fever

1. S&P 500 surpasses 4500, DJIA close to 35.000, and NASDAQ settles at 14.125. Mike Wilson seems to be wrong again.

2. October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation drops to 3.2%, lower than the anticipated 3.3% and the lowest since July.

3. Sam Altman steps down as CEO of OpenAI amid the board's loss of confidence in his leadership. Former Twitch CEO Emmett Shear replaces him. Altman will join Microsoft and will lead Microsoft’s new AI team.

4. Major companies like Apple, Disney, and IBM halt Twitter advertising campaigns. Elon is not amused.

5. Fidelity seeks approval for an Ethereum-based Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Gary Gensler is displeased.

6. Microsoft's stock value reaches a new peak but falls sharply in the final hour of trading on the OpenAI news.

7. Walmart's CEO anticipates a potential phase of deflation in the coming months.

8. President Biden labels China's President Xi Jinping as a "dictator" shortly after their recent meeting.

9. U.S. money-market fund assets achieve a new record of $5.7 trillion.

10. U.S. retail sales experience a decline for the first time in seven months.

11. Delinquencies in commercial real estate loans at U.S. banks reach a decade-high.

12. Ongoing U.S. jobless claims rise to a near two-year peak, marking the eighth consecutive week of increases.

13. In China's $175 billion property dollar bond sector, bonds worth $124.5 billion are in default.

14. U.S. housing starts attain a three-month high.

15. Homebuilders' stocks see a remarkable 17% increase in just three weeks.

16. Michael Burry liquidates a substantial short position in the S&P and NASDAQ.

17. Mike Wilson is still bearish. His 2024 price target for the S&P 500 is 4,500. That represents a slight downside from Thursday’s close. Morgan Stanley's 2024 outlook suggests the Federal Reserve will enact significant interest rate cuts over the next two years as inflation subsides.

18. Home Depot exceeds earnings forecasts but predicts its first annual sales decline since 2009.

19. Argentina’s inflation rate escalates to over 143% before the election. The newly elected president wants to eliminate the country’s central bank and introduce the US Dollar as the new currency.

20. Amazon plans to commence car sales on its platform in 2024.

21. U.S. producer prices in October decrease by 0.5% month-over-month, contrary to the expected 0.1%.

22. Japan's Q3 GDP contracts by 2.1% annually, more than the estimated 0.4%.

23. September sees a near 30-year high in auto loan delinquencies among subprime borrowers, reaching 6.1%.

24. Average credit card balances hit a 10-year peak, climbing over $6,000 and increasing by 15% from last year.

25. CBOE plans to introduce Bitcoin and Ethereum futures with margins in January 2024.

The Economic Week Ahead: November 20-24

The events for the week starting November 20 2023 in the provided economic calendar are as follows:

Monday, 20th November:

• Composite Cyclical Index (Oct)

Tuesday, 21st November:

• Existing Home Sales (Oct)

• Richmond Fed Mfg Index (Nov)

• Consumer Sent Net Activity (Oct)

Wednesday, 22nd November:

• Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

• Consumer Confidence (Nov, final)

• Michigan Sentiment (Nov, final)

• Jobless Claims (11/18)

Thursday, 23rd November:

• Thanksgiving Day - All markets closed

Friday, 24th November:

• No events listed as markets are likely observing the Thanksgiving holiday.

Earnings Calendar Highlights: November 20 - November 26, 2023

MONDAY (11/20)

Noteworthy earnings reportsCompanySymbolEarnings estimate

Agilent A $1.35 per share

BellRing Brands BRBR $0.40

Keysight Technologies KEYS $1.87

Zoom Video Communications ZM $1.08

TUESDAY (11/21) (11/21)

Earnings spotlight: Abercrombie & Fitch 

Abercrombie & Fitch will report third-quarter earnings ahead of Tuesday's open. Analysts, on average, expect the Hollister parent to disclose earnings of $1.18 per share, better than the 1 cent per share it reported one year ago. Revenue is expected to increase 11.5% year-over-year (YoY) to $980.9 million. 

Earnings spotlight: Nvidia

Nvidia has tripled in value this year. Per S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average price target for NVDA is $641.88 - an upside of nearly 30% to current levels.

As for the third-quarter earnings report, due out after Tuesday's close, analysts anticipate a per-share profit of $3.10 compared to a year-ago profit of 58 cents per share. Revenue is forecast at $14.9 billion (+152.5% YoY).

Other noteworthy earnings reports

Analog Devices ADI $2.02 per share

Autodesk ADSK $1.99

Baidu BIDU $17.11

Best Buy BBY $1.19

Burlington Stores BURL $0.97

Dick's Sporting Goods DKS $2.45

Kohl's KSS $0.35

Lowe's LOW $3.02

Medtronic MDT $1.18

Nordstrom JWN $0.12

Urban Outfitters URBN $0.82

WEDNESDAY (11/22)

Noteworthy earnings reports

Deere DE $7.46

THURSDAY (11/23)

Royal Bank of Canada RY $1.95 per share

Toronto-Dominion Bank TD $1.44

The U.S. stock market will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.

FRIDAY (11/24)

There are no earnings scheduled for Black Friday. The U.S. stock market will close early at 1 pm Eastern time.

Company websites provide reporting schedules. Earnings estimate data provided by Refinitiv, an LSEG business, via Yahoo! Finance, and S&P Global Market Intelligence via Briefing.com.